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Job Losses: They Slow Before We Grow
Posted by: Nick Will
Thanks to www.calculatedriskblog.com for the following chart that shows job loss percentages following the onset of recessions since WWII. As for the depth of job losses, you see our current recession is on par with the recessions of 1948 and 1958. But the big most important question right now is this: how long will it take to get back above 0% when we get net job growth again? Here's the chart followed by some thoughts.

So yes, it's been pretty bad, but the curve we're in isn't a projection on this chart, it's data so far. And you see how the red line is starting to "bow" in the recent few months. It's smooth, but it's there. This moderating trend is noted in The August Jobs Report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics, the agency that releases unemployment data. Now what we want is a "u" shaped curve and we want that red line to bend back toward the 0% starting line.
Even if the recovery in jobs takes a bit longer than the shallower 2001 recession, we still may be looking at positive job growth in the next 18-24 months. If things go well, it could be more like 18, which means positive job growth possibly as soon as the end of next year. Even the real prospect of that time frame is really incredible considering where this economic catastrophe began.
Bear this in mind: when that red line curves back up, that does not mean job growth starts overall (though it will be fueled in part by some new jobs, but the net number will still be losses). What it means is that the pace of job losses is slowing.
So as you hear about scary historical bad employment figures, just remember that we have to hear bad news (job losses) for a number of more months before that red line gets back to 0% and we see positive numbers again. So for planning your finances, be watching for that red line to curve back up - don't wait for it to get above the 0% line, because by then you'll already be behind the curve if you didn't plan ahead.
Job Losses: They Slow Before We Grow